The potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency has sparked mixed reactions globally, but for many Arab regimes, particularly in the Gulf, it may be seen as a welcomed shift in US foreign policy. Trump’s approach to foreign relations during his first term, notably with Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies, made him a preferred leader for many authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. As speculation grows about the consequences of a second Trump presidency, questions are emerging regarding his impact on human rights, Iran, and relations with Israel—issues that intersect with the ongoing repression in Saudi Arabia.
Arab Monarchies’ Preference for Trump Over Biden
Before the election results were clear, several Arab leaders were reportedly wary of signaling their preferences publicly. However, the consensus among many was clear: Donald Trump was the favored candidate over Kamala Harris or Joe Biden for several critical reasons.
The most significant factor is Trump’s established relationships with key Arab figures, most notably Mohammed bin Zayed (the President of the UAE) and Mohammed bin Salman (the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia). During his presidency, Trump formed personal ties with these leaders, often referring to Bin Salman as a “friend” and offering unwavering support despite global condemnation over Saudi human rights violations and the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. For these authoritarian rulers, Trump’s approach to foreign policy—which emphasized non-interference in domestic affairs—was a stark contrast to the more critical stance often taken by his predecessors.
Trump’s Non-Interference Policy: A Boon for Repressive Regimes
One of the defining characteristics of Trump’s first term was his policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, particularly when it came to human rights violations. This approach allowed repressive regimes to thrive without facing international scrutiny. For example, Trump famously called Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi “my favorite dictator,” signaling his alignment with autocratic leaders across the Middle East. This style of diplomacy has earned Trump significant favor with Arab monarchies that have faced international backlash over their human rights records.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, saw little to no criticism from the Trump administration regarding its crackdown on political dissidents, its role in the war in Yemen, and its broader suppression of freedoms. With Trump’s return, these regimes hope to continue their authoritarian control without the fear of external pressure for reforms, making his presidency an appealing prospect for the Gulf monarchies.
Trump’s Tough Stance on Iran: A Factor in Gulf Regimes’ Support
Another key issue that has made Trump popular among Gulf monarchies is his hardline stance on Iran. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed severe sanctions on the Iranian regime, hoping to curb its influence in the region. For countries like Saudi Arabia, which view Iran as a direct regional threat, Trump’s aggressive approach was seen as a critical safeguard against Iran’s growing influence and its support for militant groups across the region.
Many Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, were disillusioned with the Biden administration’s more diplomatic approach to Iran, which they felt emboldened Tehran’s proxy forces. In contrast, Trump’s zero-tolerance approach to Iran’s regional expansion was viewed as a preferable strategy. This has led to speculation that Saudi Arabia hopes for an even more aggressive US policy towards Iran should Trump return to power, as well as the potential for increased pressure on Iran’s proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah.
Saudi Arabia’s Optimism for a “Trump 2.0” Presidency
Saudi Arabia, in particular, has high hopes for what a second term for Trump might bring. The kingdom anticipates that Trump’s “Trump 2.0” administration will be even more generous in its approach to Saudi-Israeli normalization. Saudi Arabia has been increasingly warming to the idea of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, largely due to shared concerns about Iran. Under Trump, the Abraham Accords, which led to normalization between Israel and several Arab nations, became a reality. Saudi Arabia could be looking for further Israeli concessions, including movement on the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in exchange for normalization.
However, despite this optimism, Trump’s potential influence over Israel could be seen as a double-edged sword. While Netanyahu and Trump have cultivated a close relationship, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a flashpoint that could pose challenges for Saudi Arabia’s regional strategy.
Human Rights in Saudi Arabia: A Continued Crisis Under Trump
While Saudi Arabia may benefit diplomatically from Trump’s foreign policy, the human rights situation in the kingdom remains dire. Saudi Arabia has faced widespread criticism for its human rights abuses, including arbitrary detentions, the repression of women’s rights, the murder of journalists, and the use of forced labor. Despite these issues, Trump’s administration largely turned a blind eye to such violations, focusing more on strategic alliances and economic deals.
Under a potential Trump 2.0 presidency, there are concerns that the US will continue to overlook Saudi Arabia’s human rights abuses in favor of geopolitical and economic considerations. This could be a devastating blow to the global push for human rights reforms in the Gulf, as Saudi Arabia would likely continue to receive impunity and support from the US at the expense of basic freedoms for its citizens and migrant workers.
Moreover, the continued suppression of political freedoms, particularly in Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on dissent, is unlikely to be addressed by the Trump administration, which has historically valued stability over human rights when dealing with autocratic regimes. The killing of Jamal Khashoggi, for example, did not result in meaningful consequences for the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, highlighting the kingdom’s continued ability to act with impunity.
The Risk of Regional Instability and Human Rights Violations
While Trump’s return to power may align with the interests of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, it also raises serious questions about human rights in the region. By continuing to ignore the grave violations committed by these regimes, the US risks legitimizing authoritarian governance and exacerbating the human rights crisis in the Middle East.
As Saudi Arabia moves forward with its Vision 2030 reform agenda, it faces increasing scrutiny over its treatment of migrant workers, its restrictions on free speech, and its systemic oppression of women and minority groups. Without international pressure, including from the US and its allies, Saudi Arabia may continue down a path of repression and violence, unchecked by the global community.
Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Power and Ethics
The prospect of a Donald Trump return to power presents a complicated dynamic for Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East. While Arab monarchies may celebrate his more hands-off approach to governance and his tough stance on Iran, the human rights violations under these regimes, particularly in Saudi Arabia, will likely continue unchecked. Trump’s potential influence over Israel and his historical indifference to the Saudi regime’s abuses raise important questions about the US’s commitment to upholding democratic values and human rights on the world stage.
As the region continues to navigate the complex interplay between politics, power, and human rights, the international community must remain vigilant in advocating for freedom, justice, and accountability, regardless of political allegiances.