On November 5, former President Donald Trump regained the White House in a landslide victory over his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Global watchers are closely examining the outcomes, with US allies, partners, and enemies making predictions about the future strategic course of the Trump administration. There seems to be general agreement that Trump’s second term will be very different from his first on a few important subjects, and everyone impacted is considering how to handle that.
Security and counterterrorism cooperation:
The newly elected president’s position on the continuing Israeli conflict in Gaza, which has intensified in recent months and spread to Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, is of great concern in the Middle East. The legitimacy of Trump’s campaign pledge to put an end to the Middle East hostilities will be put to the test after his inauguration on January 20, 2025. Regardless of the political party in power in Washington, the United States continues to be an essential strategic partner for Saudi Arabia. Republican administrations have historically made the Saudis feel more comfortable. This has been particularly true given the tense relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia during the administration of President Barack Obama, which had a long-lasting effect on Saudi leaders. Trump is well known to the Saudis, who, despite occasional annoyances, found a solid ally during his first term. Saudi Arabia therefore believes that Trump’s second term would result in fruitful collaboration in many areas. Significantly, following a time of increased friction, ties with President Joe Biden’s administration improved in the second half of his term, which helped create a more welcoming atmosphere for Saudi participation.
Human rights concerns and diplomatic strains:
Because of his previous position as Obama’s vice president and his campaign’s harsh condemnation of the monarchy, including his vow to turn it into a “pariah” on the global scene, President Biden’s election in 2020 was not good news for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia prepared for difficulties in its relations with the United States, anticipating criticism from the new Democratic administration on matters like the Yemen conflict and human rights. Indeed, the start of Biden’s administration included measures that caused unease in the kingdom, most notably the suspension of offensive weapons supplies to the kingdom and the halt of US assistance for Saudi aggressive military operations in Yemen. The Biden administration’s February 2021 release of a US intelligence report on the October 2018 assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which did not result in sanctions against the Saudi leadership but sent a bad message to the kingdom, further exacerbated this tougher posture.
Vision 2030 and US collaboration in Saudi reforms
At the time President Biden assumed office, there was a breach in bilateral ties at the leadership level. The new government swiftly declared that Biden would only speak to King Salman bin Abdulaziz, avoiding the de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to the media, in private chats, bin Salman made fun of Biden and voiced severe doubts about his mental clarity. However, senior officials, including White House Middle East and North Africa Coordinator Brett McGurk and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, worked to improve relations and ease tensions between the two leaders. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated at the beginning of his tenure that the United States wanted to “recalibrate,” not “rupture,” its relationship with Saudi Arabia. In fact, tensions remained even after the Biden administration confirmed backing for the kingdom’s defense against Houthi attacks and did not significantly press Saudi Arabia on human rights issues. The start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine made it clear to the Biden team that to stabilize oil prices, some kind of closeness with Saudi Arabia needed to be restored.
Balancing domestic and international expectations
His altercation with the crown prince and his criticism of the Khashoggi case, however, caused resentment in Riyadh. As a result, despite American pleas, Saudi Arabia was not convinced to boost oil production dramatically. In October 2022, a month before the US midterm elections, Saudi Arabia pushed for “OPEC+” to cut oil output by two million barrels per day, further straining relations. Some analysts regarded this action as an effort to weaken the Biden administration by supporting the Republican Party. Despite President Biden’s promises, there were no repercussions for the oil output decision.
The United States also concentrated on promoting a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel during this phase, which was said to include a defense pact between the US and Saudi Arabia, the creation of a Saudi civilian nuclear program, and US cooperation in artificial intelligence and technology. In an interview with Fox News in September 2023, Crown Prince Bin Salman indicated that the normalization agreement was making headway. A further step toward normalization was the US-led announcement in New Delhi of an economic corridor project in the same month that would connect India to Europe through Saudi Arabia and Israel. The crown prince and President Biden were present at the event.