Russia started an unprecedented and quite doubtful step; on July 3, 2025, an official recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan Government was made. In a ceremony described by the Russian Foreign Ministry as “normalization of diplomatic procedure,” the Taliban flag was raised over the Afghan embassy in Moscow. The Taliban envoy Jamal Nasir Garwal submitted his credentials making him the first Taliban ambassador to be accepted in any place since the group had taken power in August 2021.
Taliban described the development as a foreign affairs success. Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi stated that the move by Russia was a “positive precedent” and said this is what the group hoped would be copied by other countries stating that “other countries will like to follow.” To the millions of Afghans especially women, the young people and the pro-human rights people; this was a moment of something different: neglect.
A regime entrenched in repression
Women’s lives confined by decree
The Taliban’s promises of moderation after returning to power have consistently rung hollow. They have since prohibited girls’ attendance at secondary and above schools, stripped women off nearly all publicly employed jobs and criminalized them whenever they enter most public areas. Afghan women have been living in a gender-based prison especially in the capital Kabul to Kandahar.
The regime has increased its repressive policies despite the international pressure, which includes the countries with the Muslim-majority population. Feminists have been imprisoned, kept missing or exiled. Russia’s recognition, many fear, gives implicit endorsement to this regime of exclusion.
Political dissent crushed at home and abroad
On top of matters of gender, the Taliban have established authoritarian rule that extends to every aspect of life. They silence the opposition by intimidating, spying, and holding people extra-judicially. Reporters are threatened and the opposing political parties are nonexistent. Members of the former Afghan National Defense and Security Forces have reportedly faced mass detentions and executions.
Civil society, once vibrant and growing, now operates largely underground or in exile. Recognition by a UN Security Council permanent member only deepens the regime’s legitimacy while severing the few remaining hopes of meaningful opposition gaining any formal platform.
Russia’s rationale for recognition
Security logic after Crocus City Hall attack
Russia’s decision is not without strategic calculation. A terrorist shooting in Moscow at the Crocus City Hall in March 2024 that saw 145 people killed was conducted by Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) who was a challenger to Taliban. Russian officials have recently claimed that it must work with the Taliban to prevent jihadist spill-over originating in Afghanistan from becoming a genuine evil.
Special envoy Zamir Kabulov stated publicly that
“Supporting the de facto government in Kabul is the most pragmatic approach to preventing terrorism on our southern borders.”
He also announced that Afghanistan would join the Moscow Format dialogue as a full member, further institutionalizing ties with the regime.
Trade, minerals, and access to the Indian Ocean
Moscow’s economic ambitions are just as evident. Since 2022, Russia and the Taliban have signed deals covering wheat, fuel, and infrastructure. Analysts say the Kremlin sees Afghanistan as a conduit to Indian Ocean trade routes and as a source of untapped mineral wealth, including rare earth elements.
The diplomatic incentive associated with Russian recognition can also play a big role. Such major infrastructure projects as the Trans-Afghan Railway (connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) are on the rise due to the open political support of Moscow.
Reactions from Afghans and the global stage
Civil society expresses outrage
Afghan civil society leaders have denounced the move as a betrayal. In statements circulated online, opposition figures and human rights advocates warned that Russia’s decision validates a regime that has ruled through fear and exclusion. For many, this marks the most significant international setback since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover.
Ismail Miakhil, a Kabul-based political analyst, said the move was
“Not unexpected, but tragic in its timing.”
He argued that Afghanistan’s path to democratic transition is now even more distant.
Women’s voices rise against normalization
Women’s rights activists reacted with particular anguish. In interviews and statements shared across digital platforms, they described the recognition as a green light for gender apartheid. “Every handshake with this regime buries the dream of Afghan girls a little deeper,” one activist in Herat wrote anonymously for fear of reprisal.
Many believe that international silence and fatigue have paved the way for this outcome, with major powers gradually withdrawing moral and material support from Afghan civil society.
International divide deepens
While China welcomed Russia’s decision with cautious optimism, most Western nations remain opposed. The United States reiterated its stance that recognition is contingent on measurable human rights improvements. A State Department official told reporters,
“The Taliban have made zero progress on their commitments. Recognition without accountability undermines every principle of responsible diplomacy.”
The European Union issued a statement expressing “grave concern” and emphasizing that the Taliban’s actions continue to violate international human rights norms. Nonetheless, regional powers like Uzbekistan and Türkiye have indicated they may soon follow Russia’s lead.
UN representation in question
With a UN Security Council permanent member recognizing the Taliban, questions are now swirling about who will represent Afghanistan at the United Nations. Ambassador Naseer Faiq who represents the overthrown republic is at the moment holding his post. There is increasing pressure and some fear that this trend can create an opportunity of the Taliban to occupy the Afghanistan seat at the UN- an opportunity they have been keen to obtain over the years.
Dismantling the last levers of accountability
Legitimacy without reform
The Taliban have repeatedly stated that they will not change their policies in exchange for recognition. Russia’s decision appears to affirm this approach. By extending diplomatic legitimacy without requiring concrete reforms, Moscow has effectively rewarded the Taliban for maintaining the status quo.
Many in the international human rights community worry this undermines what little leverage remains. With frozen assets, travel bans, and sanctions already in place, diplomatic recognition was one of the last tools available to press the Taliban toward reform. Its premature use weakens that pressure and sends a troubling signal to other authoritarian regimes.
A new precedent for pragmatic recognition
The long-standing international stance was clear: no recognition without human rights. Russia has broken this consensus, and the consequences could be far-reaching. If other countries adopt a similarly transactional approach, the Taliban’s incentives to address repression, corruption, or governance failures may evaporate entirely.
While many nations still voice concerns about the Taliban’s actions, Russia’s move may embolden them to prioritize strategic interests over moral commitments. This shift in global diplomatic behavior may outlast the current Afghan crisis, reshaping international norms for years to come.
A voice in the storm
A number of policy experts and observers have shared concerns about the implications of this diplomatic shift.
Russia just officially recognized the Taliban government, sorry, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan 😳
— Shaun Pinner (@olddog100ua) July 4, 2025
Taliban flag now flying over the Afghan embassy in Moscow.
Putin really out here collecting all the worst governments like Pokémon cards.
So when does the battalion of Afghan… pic.twitter.com/EsF9Mde0sh
This person has spoken on the topic describing Russia’s recognition as a geopolitical gamble that may embolden repression while diminishing international credibility. They argued that while Russia may secure short-term influence, the long-term damage to Afghan civil society and international norms could be irreversible.
A future shaped by silence or solidarity
The fate of Afghanistan has been thrown into another unclear phase. To the people fighting against Taliban oppression, particularly women, ethnic minorities and former government employees, the fact that Russia acknowledges them amounts to the closing of a door. As few allies and leverage are left, the ability of domestic opposition to deliver meaningful outcomes can continue to decline even more.
Yet this moment also presents a test. Will other states be vocal, will the geopolitical lethargy give way to the fine tuning of one of the most oppressive regimes by the peaceful integration of a regime into the international system? It is possible that the response of the world to this issue or rather its absence will not only decide the future of Afghanistan but also the veracity of the human rights paradigm that was being pursued so vociferously following 9/11.
The next moves—by regional players, UN officials, and Afghan actors themselves—will reveal whether this is merely one country’s diplomatic pivot or the beginning of a broader erosion of the norms that once claimed to prioritize people over power.