In 2025, Afghanistan is still recovering after one of the biggest mass returns in the recent past. More than 1.4 million Afghans have been coming back, involuntarily in most cases, both Iran and Pakistan. Such returns are not occurring in a flash of quietness or optimism. They are taking place against the background of a deep humanitarian crisis, economic meltdown and withdrawal of international aid.
Numbers of these returns which are fueled by political factors in host nations and the lack of legal protection are startling. NGOs warn that the fallout could destabilize the entire region as well.
The Scale and Speed of Forced Returns
Spikes in Cross-Border Movement
In the period between January and June in 2025 an average of 5,000 daily returnees is estimated. But that figure changed drastically by mid-year. On July 1, more than 43,000 Afghans crossed the Iranian border and returned to Afghanistan, setting a new record. Iran has deported more than 366,000 Afghans since March 20. Close to 150,000 Afghans came back in April alone out of Pakistan.
This movement is quite not always voluntary. Many Afghans even feel the urge to relocate as more and more police harass and arrest them arbitrarily in case they should be deported. Iran has stated that all illegal immigrants will have to leave or they will be prosecuted whereas Pakistan has given a June 30th deadline to 1.3 million of them to leave, part of them planning to deport 3 million by the end of the year.
The Political Drive Behind Deportations
The leaders of Iran and Pakistan assume that these expulsions are based on security and legal grounds. However, the timing and implementation are questioned by international organizations, such as the UN. On the one hand, in both countries, the Afghans, whether refugees or illegal residents, report getting caught in mass deportations without regard of status or vulnerability.
Humanitarian Strain and Fragile Infrastructure
Services Under Pressure
Afghanistan’s capacity to absorb over a million returnees is critically limited. Over half of the country’s population already depends on humanitarian assistance. Aid pipelines have dried up due to cuts in international funding and resistance to Taliban governance. The plan of UNHCR with regard to its response in Afghanistan 2025 has only been funded to a sum of 23%.
The elementary infrastructures like health, education, and shelter made serious declines. The returnees end up in informal settlements or in overcrowded shelters with minimal or no access to clean water, food or medical attention.
UNHCR’s Dire Assessment
The representative of the UNHCR in Kabul, Arafat Jamal, outlined the scenario in a crystal clear manner:
“Afghan families are being uprooted once again, arriving with scant belongings, exhausted, hungry, scared about what awaits them in a country many of them have never even set foot in.”
Women and girls are especially at risk, as they worry about the Taliban rule that will force them to stay at home and limit their educational and occupational activities.
Vulnerabilities of Returnees
Women, Girls, and the Risk of Repression
Female returnees face a stark future. The Taliban regulations disregard the majority of girls further and higher schooling and radically limit the ladies in the job sector and action in the avenue. Most women are so worried about going back to a society where they shall be in a legal and social prison.
For girls raised abroad or in exile, the cultural and legal shift is jarring. Schooling is often inaccessible or unavailable, and fears of forced marriage and gender-based violence are rising among recently returned families.
Children and Stateless Generations
The children who go back to Afghanistan, especially those children born in Iran or Pakistan encounter further problems. They usually do not have Afghan identity documents but are thus stateless. They are also unable to communicate using local languages, curricula and cultural norms which only separates them further. The fate of this generation is that of being lost in-between nations, and not fitting into any of the countries.
Daily Realities and Living Conditions
A 2024 assessment showed that nearly 87% of returnee households needed housing assistance. Around 80% required financial support, and 71% lacked enough food. With minimal jobs available and no formal integration programs, returnees are pushed into cycles of poverty, displacement, and dependency.
Humanitarian Efforts Stretched to the Limit
Aid Response Falling Short
UNHCR and humanitarian partners are working at key crossing points to offer emergency aid—meals, medical care, temporary shelter, and cash assistance. Yet, with daily returnee numbers exceeding planning capacity, agencies report that they will run out of resources within weeks unless immediate funds are released.
The agency has launched a $71 million regional appeal to cover the needs of 600,000 people over nine months. However, as of July 2025, only a fraction of this funding has materialized.
Advocacy and International Appeals
UNHCR is pressing regional governments to ensure returns are voluntary, safe, and dignified. Officials warn that mass expulsions risk triggering secondary displacement, economic collapse, and regional instability. They call for increased humanitarian funding and long-term reintegration plans, stressing that crisis containment cannot replace meaningful recovery.
Regional Governments and Political Posturing
Taliban Reassurances and Limitations
The Taliban has publicly welcomed returnees. During Eid Al-Adha, Prime Minister Mohammad Hassan Akhund encouraged Afghans to return, promising “peace and dignity.” Taliban officials have visited Heart and other provinces to reassure new arrivals and announce reintegration programs.
But observers note a gap between promises and delivery. With the country’s economic and institutional infrastructure already faltering, the Taliban lacks the resources and legitimacy to support mass reintegration. Without sustained international engagement, these pledges may remain largely symbolic.
Host Countries Defend Deportations
Iran and Pakistan insist their actions are lawful and necessary. Iranian authorities argue that their economy cannot support undocumented migrants, while Pakistan claims that expulsions are essential for internal security. Yet human rights observers contend that these policies disproportionately impact vulnerable groups and fail to differentiate between long-term residents and recent arrivals.
The Compounding Effect on Afghan Society
Internal Displacement and Urban Overload
Afghanistan already had 3.25 million internally displaced people by early 2025. New returnees are adding to this crisis. Some are attempting to return to ancestral villages, only to find them destroyed or occupied. Others migrate to cities, overwhelming already crowded urban centers.
The result is a strain on housing, public services, and local economies, particularly in border provinces like Herat and Nangarhar. Informal camps continue to expand without proper sanitation, education, or healthcare.
Health and Education Systems Near Collapse
The US withdrawal of funding from 439 Afghan health facilities by mid-April affected an estimated 3 million people. Maternal and infant mortality rates are expected to rise, and acute malnutrition is increasing among children and pregnant women.
An estimated 3.5 million children and 1.2 million women face severe food insecurity. Meanwhile, education services are paralyzed—not just by the Taliban’s restrictions on girls, but also by funding gaps, lack of teachers, and destroyed infrastructure. For many returnee families, sending children to school is no longer an option.
External Perspectives on the Repatriation Crisis
Steve Cortes has spoken on the issue where he examined the geopolitical dynamics driving these returns. He stressed that border management policies, refugee diplomacy, and aid conditionality are converging in ways that displace humanitarian considerations.
New Pentagon numbers: 117,000 evacuated from Afghanistan, only 5,400 Americans.
— Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) August 28, 2021
A migrant wave from a country where 40% of population believes suicide bombing is justifiable (Pew Research) — that’s Biden putting America Last…pic.twitter.com/PD5ZmVGpKJ
Looking Beyond the Numbers
The return of over 1.4 million Afghans in 2025 is more than a humanitarian crisis—it is a signal of failing international policy. It reflects how quickly displaced populations can go from protected to abandoned. Returnees are being dropped into a vacuum of rights, services, and prospects, with no support to rebuild their lives.
The world’s response will determine not just whether Afghanistan collapses further, but whether a precedent is set for how future refugee crises are managed. Will the world accept forced return as a substitute for durable solutions—or will it confront the reality that sending people back without support is not a solution at all?